Written By: Anton Sawyer
How The Russo-Ukraine War Will Impact America's Election in 2024
“Death comes ripping.”
This was the initial thought I had when viewing the carnage left from the attack on Ukraine by Russia. It was then followed by the thought, “This is going to destroy any chance the DNC will have in winning the White House in 2024.” Though these two thoughts may seem completely unrelated, there is a common thread to be found. And that’s what today’s article is going to focus on: a look at the most recent attack brought about by Russian President Vladimir Putin in the continuing Russo-Ukraine war, and how Biden’s response (no matter what it may be) will ultimately end up hurting the entire war effort along with the DNC party as a whole. From where this most recent atrocity began, to what I feel the American people will respond positively to, it’s beginning to look a lot like a red wave.
Though the Russo-Ukraine war has been going on since 2014, I do want to skip ahead by giving Cliff’s Notes version of the events leading up to the Russian attack and invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
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BRIEF HISTORY OF CONFLICT
The current iteration of this conflict has been on the international radar since the end of 2021 when Russia began massing thousands of troops near the Ukraine border. Afterward, Putin laid out a series of bold security demands that would not only stop NATO’s expansion to the east but push it back, viewing the drift of former Communist countries and Soviet republics into Washington’s orbit as an existential threat to Russia. Though there was some dialogue on lower-level issues, the central demands were deemed nonstarters by the US and its NATO allies.
Since then it has been an international game of "will he/won't he?" Putin began military exercises, then pulled troops back. Then some sanctions, then more aggression from Moscow. Combining these actions with US and NATO intelligence stating an invasion by Putin was all but guaranteed, all of Europe held their breath until the inevitable happened. And happen it did when an inhuman madman with something to prove to himself sent death from above.
Though there had been sanctions levied by NATO, the US, and others repeatedly by this point, after the attack, every penalty was taken to the next level. The European Union, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, and Taiwan all hit Moscow with new injunctions within 24 hours of the attack. A few days after that, the United States and the United Kingdom also unveiled more measures against Russia as both nations' leaders condemned the actions of Putin. Some critics have said that these sanctions haven’t been enough and a more militaristic approach should be necessary, even though these sanctions have already shown some negative economic impact on the "motherland." Within a week, Russia's main MOEX index closed down 33%, while the ruble sank to a record low, down 7% against the US dollar.
REPUBLICAN RESPONSE
Before anything else, we need to address the "yuge" elephant in the room; ex-President Donald Trump. Even though Trump said that Putin is “very savvy” and made a “genius” move by declaring two regions of eastern Ukraine as independent states and moving Russian armed forces to attack them, he will have his apologists—no matter the evidence. Flat-out, Trump is supporting Putin’s attack and will continue to do so during the duration of this war. Any other thought is merely trying to justify genocide.
Though Trump is still seen by many as the default RNC leader, other Republicans have tried to be somewhat more tactful in their responses.
Hours after the Russian attack began, Fox News published an op-ed written by one of our favorite Governors, Republican Kristi Noem of South Dakota. In it, she points to Biden’s decision last May to remove sanctions on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline as a factor in Russia’s eventual military build-up and invasion into Ukraine. The pipeline is set to ship natural gas from Russia to Germany and was completed in September. Since the attacks, all plans for that have been put on the back burner. Noem argued the decision to waive sanctions gave Russia leverage and “doomed Ukraine” in the process. She also accused Biden of having a double standard, noting he blocked the Keystone XL pipeline that would have delivered oil from Canada to the Gulf Coast.
I have a strange suspicion that as time progresses, both the level of attacks and ferocity of them will continue to raise and morph. I use the word “morph” because there has yet to be a single GOP representative in Washington calling for a military response, and I know this will come up sooner or later. At the time of publication, both Biden and the GOP have come out saying that we will not be sending troops overseas to assist Ukraine in this battle—though Biden has already allocated more than $1 billion in security assistance to the nation over the last year. Given the hawkish nature of the conservative party, I have to admit that there is a level of surprise when it comes to denouncing the need for troops. And then I remember we’re still two years away from electing the next president of the United States—plenty of time to set the pins before the ball comes crashing through.
Biden, The DNC, and the Red Wave
In most cases, wars last years. Again, the Russo-Ukraine war has been going in some form or another since 2014. To think that Putin is going to go in, complete whatever he says the mission is that day, and then get out immediately would be absurd. Putin has made a career out of the long game, and I believe this recent invasion is going to cost the presidency for whomever the DNC puts up as a nominee in 2024. And no, that nominee won’t be Biden.
For years Biden has reminded me of a former president in a myriad of ways, but it wasn’t until this invasion that the pieces finally came together. Biden is the modern-day Jimmy Carter.
When Jimmy Carter was elected, he simply wasn’t prepared for it. I’m not saying he was a bad president, or completely wrecked our nation or anything to that effect. He was simply ineffectual when it came to the “big things” that the common citizen cared about and the similarities between the two are striking.
Both were elected when the nation was divided over the recent scandal of a Republican president breaking the law followed by impeachment hearings, and their electors voting for them in office in an attempt to regain “normalcy.”
Both took over during a time of great economic turmoil in America.
Both tried to do the “right thing” on a world stage, but in doing so, they ignored the constituents that they made promises to.
I’ll give you a prime example for each.
For Carter, he campaigned on solving the energy crisis, increasing the gas tax, and pursuing alternative energy sources vociferously. None of this happened. Yet, he spent not only his presidency, but his entire life focused on foreign policy. He was always looking to do the “right thing” for those who were in desperation the world around.
For Biden, he campaigned on ending student loans, thereby removing the crushing weight of debt that has plagued millions of Americans for multiple generations. Though a campaign promise, he has refused to do that for his countrymen. But in the same vein as Carter when it comes to doing the “right thing,” he’s allocated the aforementioned $1 billion in aid to those abroad. The Democratic constituents are not going to forget this when it comes time to go to the polls in a couple of years.
But there’s one other similarity they both share which is going to prevent Biden from being the nominee in 2024; they’re complete befuddlement during their administrations. In other words, neither were properly prepared for the grandness of the Presidency and the nuance needed to be an effective leader. Whether it’s due to Carter’s down-home Southern naiveté when it came to how the country was run, to Biden’s clear lack of mental cognition, the Democratic party as a whole became unable to see a future with either.
Before you send any hate comments about Biden’s mental cognition, I’ve made it clear that I feel that neither Biden nor Trump were mentally fit to run the country, and it seems the actions of the DNC show they agree.
Since the 2020 election, the Democratic party has done everything it can to limit the exposure of off-the-cuff moments that Biden has had to endure from media questioning. If you have ever heard him go off-script over the last couple of years, you know exactly what I mean. The DNC wants to minimize these events as much as possible before re-positioning to their next golden child who will lead the party to national victory.
Similarly, during Carter’s administration, he couldn’t get support from his own party over his energy initiatives. In fact, it was because of his party’s resistance to his plans that many of them arrived DOA on the House and Senate floors. He was never able to figure out “the system” within his own party and it cost him politically.
Carter lost in 1980 and I don’t think Biden will make it to the final race.
Like Carter, once you’ve lost the confidence of your party, it never ends well. I think this war with Ukraine is going to show these deficiencies Biden carries. As the war progresses, the attacks from the GOP are going to put not just him, but the party as a whole, on defense for as long as the skirmish is active. If Putin keeps pushing further inward and the casualties climb, more and more Republicans are going to blame the president for not intervening in a military sense. They’re probably going to make attacks on the “self-professed humanity of the Democrats and their inability to stop the war by using military stratagem” or the like, all while pushing the need for more military spending overseas. If Biden caves in somehow (which he may do in the name of political expediency) this is going to anger those in America who are being crushed under debt, all while watching billions of dollars going to those in a foreign nation. It throws Biden and the DNC right in the middle of these two arguments—arguments that cannot be won in any sense.
Right now, the DNC doesn’t have anyone who carries the star power or political weight to be a valid candidate in 2024. Kamala Harris is (rightfully) unpopular with voters. I don’t think there’s anyone on The Squad who is palatable enough to both middle-leaning Republicans and Independents to make much hay. And we’ve already determined Biden is a doomed cause. Unfortunately, I think that as soon as ANY Democrat comes out with a firm stance that seems accepted by the national committee, you’re going to see the next candidate. And if nobody rises head and shoulders above the rest?
Remember that Red Wave I was talking about?
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